Adam Back: Bitcoin capitalisation to $1,000 billion by 2022

Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes Bitcoin’s market cap could grow 400% in less than two years


A $1 trillion Bitcoin market cap (BTC) by 2025 is a “conservative” forecast: these levels will be reached in less than two years. This is the view of Blockstream’s CEO Adam Back, who provided a new bullish forecast on 5 October on the price of BTC.

With this comment, Back responded to a report by Yassine Elmandjra, crypto asset analyst Cryptosoft and investment advisor at ARK, who forecast a market cap of between $1,000 billion and $5,000 billion by 2030 at the latest in September.

ARK is well known for its forward-looking forecasts for Tesla shares, which in 2020 have seen an almost incredible rise.

“Conservative. I would say that #Bitcoin will probably see a $1 trillion market cap within 2 years, maybe sooner. $1 trillion equals $50 trillion for BTC,” he said.

As of October 2020, Bitcoin’s market cap is equivalent to just over $199 billion. For Back’s forecast to come true, the market would have to increase 400% by 2022!

By reference, the figure at the beginning of October 2018 was $114 billion. BTC/USD was at $6,600, two months before the fall to a bear market low of $3,100.

Historical chart of Bitcoin’s market cap

Historical chart of the Bitcoin market cap. Source: CoinMarketCap

Analysts are betting on a breakout
Other responses to ARK’s forecast mention the on-chain ecoinometrics data resource, which showed that a $2 trillion market capitalization for Bitcoin would be equivalent to that of Apple.

Under these circumstances, BTC/USD would end up at $100,000, while the pair would have to reach $500,000 to match gold.

As reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin price movements are currently much more moderate, and analysts predict that the lateral trend will characterize the rest of the year.

At the same time, there is a growing expectation for BTC/USD to abandon its correlations to traditional macro assets, marking a rise in line with its historical behaviour, specifically focused on the forecasts provided by stock-to-flow models.

The stock-to-flow forecasts an average price of $288,000 during the current halving cycle, which began in May and will continue until 2024.